I was away for the weekend, drinking at a friend's place in Narva-Jõesuu. Saw Russia a few hundred yards away.
The war in Georgia hasn't had any conclusive developments. Militarily, the key to the conflict is the Roki tunnel, the only road between Russia and South Ossetia capable of carrying battle vehicles. Without heavy armor, Russia would be unable to do anything substantial in Georgia: dropping bombs on Georgian towns is not the same thing as having troops on the ground.
There has been one interesting moment, which was also the only real help Georgia has had so far from any of its friends and allies. Men-of-war from Russia's Black Sea Fleet were spotted in the ports of Abkhazia and off the Georgian cost, presumably there to enforce a naval blockade of Georgia. However, Russia does not have any serviceable military ports on the Black Sea, and the fleet actually operates out of a naval base in Sevastopol; Crimea. Ukraine said that if a naval blockade is initiated, it will deny the Black Sea Fleet ships a return to harbor within Ukrainian territory. Unlike vague statements of support and threats of diminishing relations from the apparently impotent West, Putin and Medvedev apparently felt like Ukraine bloody well meant it, so the missile cruiser Moscow and its battle group have retreated to Novorossiysk.
Kiev Bravo. For the rest of the West - this is Sudetenland. If you don't protect your friends today, you won't have friends tomorrow. First they came for the Georgians, etc.
Reflections on the latest disturbances
1 month ago