So, the results are in, and the 101-seat parliament has divided thusly:
Reform - 31 seats
Centrist - 29 seats
IRL - 19 seats
Social Democrats - 10 seats
Green Party - 6 seats
Rahvaliit - 6 seats
A good showing for Reform - actually better than I expected, also good result for IRL even if they did lose 16 seats compared with the current parliament. SDE got a good run. Greens actually got more voted than Rahvaliit (by a few dozen).
Andrus Ansip, the PM, got a record-breaking 19 thousand votes - more than Savisaar and more than any other candidate since 1991. In fact, he got enough votes to get into parliament on a personal mandate, not as part of the party list. This virtually guarantees that he will continue as PM.
In the evening reports and the morning news, Team Savisaar was making noises about being open to coalition talks, while Ansip and Laar had a photo-op together, talking cautiously of a right-wing coalition (Reform and IRL being natural allies). Between them, they are one vote short of a majority, so they will need to get either the Soc-Dems, or the Greens, or both, to join them. The latter will obviously join any coalition that gives them the Environmental Ministry.
Interesting quip on the morning show, where the guest mentioned sitting next to a politologist during the election night party, asking him about likely coalitions, and getting the response that whatever it is, it'll only last 2.5 years anyway. I tend to agree, despite the fact that the current ruling party got a massive vote of confidence.
The exact sciences
3 weeks ago